In a perfect world, when the US Senate tries the president for impeachment all of the members would vote in a non-political, objective manner. However, in a perfect world, What’s-his-Face would never have been elected in the first place. In other words, politics will be a factor in the upcoming Senate proceedings.
So for my own entertainment (mostly) I’ve rated a number of Republican Senators on just how likely they might vote to impeach that person. I based my rating on a number of criteria, as well as my own knowledge & experience as an armchair political strategist. YMMV. So without further prologue, here is my rankings.
NOTE: I only list 29 Republican Senators here. Anyone not included should be considered a reliable NO vote, such as Lindsey Graham or Mitch McConnell. I do include 4 reliable no votes at the end, but only to explain why I consider them lost causes.
1) Republican Senators who are yes votes:
****NONE****
No surprise there. Although I’m sure more than a few of you laughed at the idea any Republican has come out & said they will vote yes. (Look at what happened to Justin Amash.) No one I’d bet the rent money on voting to remove him from office.
2) Republican Senators who are maybe yes votes:
****NONE****
I’m defining “maybe yes” as better than 50% chance of voting yes. I rated no one in this category because… well, Republicans in recent years have shown far more often than not they are happily willing to condone the crimes & misbehavior of What’s-his-Face time & again. It’s okay with them if he shoots people on Fifth Avenue, engages in forcible rape with children, or wears a brown suit coat. I’d bet here if I were in the habit of buying a lottery each week as my form of entertainment.
3) Republican Senators who are maybe votes:
This is the category I define as having a 40-50% chance of voting yes. And this is where I start listing names.
Murkowski– Alaskan politics are notably independent from the rest of the country: the Trumpification of the Republicans hasn’t gone as far there as it has elsewhere, thus giving Murkowski a measure of independence. And she has struck an independent path in the past, as well as being critical of the subject of impeachment. I consider her the most likely to vote yes.
Romney– Utah is a Red state where there is the least amount of love for What’s-his-Face. (Mormons don’t like people who chase women & cheat on their wives. They’d be much happier with Pence.) And if the Mittster wants a leading role in the post-Trump GOP, he’s going to have to vote yes here. But of course, he’s never liked going after his fellow members in the 1%. Don’t hold your breath.
Gardner– By my calculations, Cory Gardner is the most moderate member of the contemporary Republican Senate. Of course, that’s like saying lethal injection is a more moderate punishment than stoning someone to death. He’s also in danger of being voted out of office this November in Purple-turning-Blue Colorado, so if voting yes keeps him in his senate seat, he will do it. Then again, since he needs all the help this November, he’s as likely to vote no in order to get lots of campaign money.
These three IMHO are about the only ones I have any reasonable expectations of voting yes on the Bills of Impeachment. If I were a betting man, I’d be as likely to bet on them as buying a lottery ticket with a spare dollar of two “because I feel lucky”. From this point on, I’m scraping the bottom of the barrel.
4) Republican Senators who are maybe no votes:
I define this category as far less than 30% chance of voting yes. They should be considered no votes, except that each has a good reason to vote yes.
Cruz– Ted is an asshole. Everyone in the Senate hates him because he can’t be trusted. Democrat or Republican, he will screw you over if he thinks he can get some benefit from it. And he has reason to screw over What’s-his-Face. What better way to do that than voting “yes” to remove him from office? Nevertheless, it doesn’t matter whether Cruz votes yes or no, it won’t gain him any respect. (Now that I think about it, Cruz probably should be in the “maybe” group. He’s clearly far more likely to vote to remove What’s-his-Face from office than Susan Collins, whom the pundits always mention as a possible yes vote.) Because he’s Ted Cruz.
Sasse (NB) – There is some grassroots dislike for the impeached one in Nebraska. I guess he offends the remaining old school Republicans in that fly-over state. So voting “yes” might not be the suicide pact in Nebraska as it would be elsewhere. And Ben has been known to speak critically about What’s-his-Face from time to time, & he’s up for re-election this year. Or he’ll fall into line like the rest of his caucus.
Rubio (FL) – What’s-his-Face has called him “Little Marco” & worse; that’s gotta hurt. I’d expect him to want payback, except that Marco’s been known to be rather feckless. He has a record of saying he wants to get some bill passed, discovers how much work it requires to do it, then settles on doing something else that requires less effort like raising campaign funds. Since casting a vote doesn’t require as much persistence & work as getting legislation passed, Marco Rubio could vote “yes”.
5) Republican Senators who are no votes:
This is my category for longshots. In fact, I wouldn’t even bother with this category were it not that someone claimed that if there were a secret ballot almost 20 senators would vote to impeach, & so far I’ve identified only 6. (Okay, 7 if you want to count Susan Collins. But I don’t.) These Republicans have an excuse to vote yes, but I would not bet money on any of them actually doing so.
Portman (OH) – Rob plays the part of a responsible Republican. He once spoke up for Gay rights, & the fact his son came out as gay really wasn’t the primary reason. Honest. And Rob has said the occasional critical thing about short-fingered vulgarians. But in the end, he’s still a Republican.
Grassley (IA) – Chuck’s been in the Senate longer than any other Republican, & has shown the occasional inclination to defend its rights against What’s-his-Face. He also has his own base of support independent of that person & doesn’t need to worry about the consequences of crossing him. Then again, Grassley’s old & might forget about these things & continue to enable that person.
Roberts (KS), Alexander (TN) – Neither is running for re-election, so they can vote however they want without worry of retribution. Both have been in the Senate long enough that you could imagine them acting to defend its independence. IMHO both are less likely to vote yes than the first 2.
Cornyn (TX) – Up for re-election this year in what has been considered a reliably Red state. However, Texas has been trending Blue & many pundits consider his re-election at risk. No doubt he’d vote “yes” to save his seat.
Sullivan (AK), Fisher (NB), Lee (UT) – These come from states where his fanatics have the least influence, as I explained above. They can vote however they want with minimal risk of fallout. But they may still want to vote “no”.
McSally (AZ), Ernst (IA), Loeffler (GA), Tillis (NC) – These are freshmen Senators running for re-election this year in states trending Blue, & are considered vulnerable to being voted out if they vote “no”. On the other hand, they are usually grouped with those who support that person. (I’m scraping the bottom of the barrel here.)
Capito (WV), Cotton (AR), Perdue (GA), Rounds (SD), Sullivan (AR) – Other Senators running for re-election, but in reliably Red states. They’d vote “yes” to save their seats, but I don’t see how they would find themselves in that situation. (I said I was scraping the bottom of the barrel.)
Collins (ME) – All the pundits talk about how she is a moderate, how she might vote yes, yibbity yibbity. Susan always says something that hints she has a soul, but when it comes down to it, she votes with her party on everything. Or as one expert famously said, “She’s a reliable vote when you don’t need her.” In other words, she’ll vote “yes” if there are 20 other “yes” votes, but more likely to vote that way if there are 22 or 23 other “yes” votes.
6) Republican Senators who are reliable no votes:
Inhofe (OK) – Although he’s up for re-election this year, & has been in the Senate long enough to want to defend its honor & traditions, I just don’t see him voting “yes”. He’s too much of a reactionary to want to remove a Republican president. That said, I could be misjudging him; admittedly, he’s more likely to vote “yes” than Susan Collins. YMMV.
Daines (MT) – Up for re-election this year in a state that’s been trending Red. He was a member of the junket of Congresscritters who went to Russia on the Fourth of July a few years back. Need I say more?
Risch (ID) – Up for re-election this year. However, the saying is “Idaho is the Mississippi of the Northwest.” Voting “yes” could cost him re-election.
Hyde-Smith (MS) – A freshman Senate up for re-election this year. However, the saying is “Mississippi is the Idaho of the South.” Voting “yes” could cost her re-election.
Paul (KY) – I had Rand in the “maybe no” category, because he likes to pass himself off as a maverick & he’s been known to say the occasional critical remark about What’s-his-Face. However, his recent stand against calling witnesses in the Senate trial forced me to recategorize him. Unless this was a head fake directed at the White House, Rand has thrown his lot in with the Devil.
I welcome comments from all about my list. Especially those who know more than me about these politicians.